USDCAD Outlook: What’s Next for the Loonie?
🧠 USD/CAD 6-Month Outlook (June – December 2025)
🔹 Fundamental Analysis
Oil Prices & Interest Rate Divergence in Focus
The USD/CAD currency pair will likely continue reacting to a combination of commodity trends and central bank policies.
-
# Federal Reserve (Fed): Sticky U.S. inflation has pushed the Fed to delay rate cuts. This keeps the U.S. dollar relatively strong, especially against commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar.
-
# Bank of Canada (BoC): With softening Canadian inflation and slower GDP growth, the BoC may be among the first to initiate cuts by Q3 2025. This adds bearish pressure on CAD.
-
# Oil Price Volatility: Crude oil, a key Canadian export, has been fluctuating due to geopolitical risk and global supply shifts. A drop in oil prices below $70/barrel could weaken CAD further.
📉 Technical Analysis
-
# Support Levels: 1.3450 – 1.3550
-
# Resistance Levels: 1.3800 – 1.4000
-
# Trend Outlook: Mild bullish bias
-
# Indicators: RSI steady near 55–60, MACD showing momentum favoring bulls on higher timeframes
If USD/CAD breaks above 1.3800, the next resistance at 1.4000 becomes the critical upside target. Below 1.3500, the trend may turn more neutral.
📈 SignalMines Insight
SignalMines forecasting suggests USD/CAD could trend toward 1.3900–1.4000 in late 2025, especially if the Bank of Canada cuts ahead of the Fed. Look for trading opportunities in dips near 1.3550, with strong confirmation signals backed by oil price trends and key BoC statements. Volatility could increase around CPI and GDP data releases from both nations.
