🔹 Fundamental Analysis

U.S. Federal Reserve vs. Bank of Japan Policy Gap
The USD/JPY remains highly reactive to the policy divergence between the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

• # Federal Reserve Outlook: The Fed has slowed its path to rate cuts due to sticky inflation. U.S. Treasury yields are holding steady, continuing to support the dollar.
  
  

• # BoJ Outlook: Japan's central bank has hinted at gradual policy normalization after ending yield curve control in early 2025. However, any tightening remains cautious and data-dependent.
  
  

• # Yen Pressure: Despite modest wage growth and improved inflation, the yen remains under pressure due to lower interest rates and Japan’s ongoing fiscal stimulus.
  
  

• # Geopolitical Risk: If global uncertainty rises, the yen could strengthen as a safe-haven, though this would likely be temporary.

📉 Technical Analysis

• # Support Levels: 143.00 – 145.00

• # Resistance Levels: 152.00 – 154.50

• # Mid-Term Trend: Bullish to range-bound

• # Momentum Indicators: RSI over 60 suggests strength, MACD still bullish on weekly charts
  
  

Unless the BoJ turns hawkish or U.S. yields fall significantly, USD/JPY is likely to remain in a bullish-to-sideways trend.

📈 SignalMines Insight

SignalMines models suggest USD/JPY could test the 152.00–154.00 range by Q4 2025 if U.S. yields remain firm and BoJ policy stays cautious. However, any unexpected intervention by Japanese authorities or sharp shifts in global risk sentiment could lead to short-term yen strength. Look for trading opportunities near 145.00 support and breakouts above 152.50 resistance.